Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 103241.639849 108756.789648 114264.176797 120172.873846 126328.936606 132549.990846 139308.171946
2025-08-24 94891.645579 103392.457258 112110.697272 121709.275613 131969.170890 142596.086115 154423.924689
2025-08-31 87871.329231 98358.572684 109344.157712 121687.336596 135146.390018 149353.945988 165462.262382
2025-09-07 83539.280188 95627.716769 108514.303070 123236.860087 139552.758153 157041.908288 177166.942750
2025-09-14 79708.909944 93059.827360 107512.455273 124265.601373 143093.887413 163543.372130 187374.529906
2025-09-21 75892.654728 90216.215163 105940.185838 124408.199112 145427.215872 168526.392542 195750.247930
2025-09-28 72573.202148 87717.890038 104558.630082 124577.575123 147624.701293 173223.975776 203701.896463
2025-10-05 70657.017636 86694.842243 104736.587984 126415.412440 151630.029162 179902.720834 213866.414716
2025-10-12 68767.996243 85584.846444 104710.845605 127926.017257 155186.807689 186023.779660 223376.738202
2025-10-19 66660.533048 84107.311907 104159.473126 128735.639645 157858.777217 191078.671377 231635.463395
2025-10-26 64391.901632 82335.007626 103168.931520 128943.038452 159754.497682 195182.419581 238760.431457
2025-11-02 62465.974520 80893.025616 102497.149142 129461.560842 161963.239640 199616.378874 246257.732548
2025-11-09 60421.278121 79252.948641 101547.561246 129621.366511 163740.146258 203562.905078 253236.055575
2025-11-16 59175.679481 78549.953189 101695.505052 131080.787348 167065.760025 209355.904065 262444.006323
2025-11-23 57240.862025 76917.371489 100642.953282 131017.723431 168502.836822 212863.405981 268910.354474
2025-11-30 56264.466316 76449.648488 100993.729678 132654.429178 171998.712144 218850.515638 278386.617419
2025-12-07 55087.032238 75680.406148 100930.108344 133744.837568 174803.043269 223995.961451 286860.363366
2025-12-14 53533.763835 74376.457148 100148.583144 133895.787113 176412.767460 227667.759132 293538.465916
2025-12-21 52075.828528 73148.610782 99420.682107 134075.537635 178028.496422 231330.266527 300205.297892
2025-12-28 51493.016484 73039.727919 100099.963557 136026.925307 181862.797140 237739.606344 310288.276256
2026-01-04 50789.310409 72744.378222 100518.416925 137630.645835 185254.958499 243611.751877 319737.158908
2026-01-11 49798.697215 72035.552481 100374.847817 138490.091413 187690.479497 248292.916541 327722.908328
2026-01-18 48582.286735 70988.378848 99758.750929 138710.243886 189290.211548 251919.380078 334397.525330